Top Farmer Midday Update 6-24-19

CORN: Corn futures are trading moderately higher today, with Jul up 2-1/2 cents to 4.44-3/4, Sep corn is up 3 cents to 4.50-1/2, and new crop Dec corn is up 3-1/4 cents to 4.56-3/4. Friday's close below the 10-day moving average support levels was not a positive technical development, but prices have pushed back above that level today. Prices are likely to continue consolidation ahead of Friday's Grain Stocks and Acreage report. The market still does not have concrete data as far as planted acres for this year, but focus may be shifting to yield, especially after a very slow start to the growing season. The U.S. shipped 618,000 tons of corn for the week ending June 20 vs 678,000 tons last week, and 1.54 mil tons the same week last year. Shipments for this marketing year are running about 2.5 mil tons behind last year's pace. Funds sold about 20,000 contracts of corn on Friday.

SOYBEANS: Soybean futures are higher this morning after holding some nearby support early in the day. Jul beans are up 5-3/4 cents to 9.08-1/2, Aug beans are up 5-1/2 cents to 9.14, and new crop Nov soybeans are up 4-1/2 to 9.32. Traders are looking forward to President Trump and President Xi meeting at the G20 Summit later this week. Though a trade deal is highly unlikely this week, there is a general sense that negotiations may be getting back on track after talks fell apart late April. Soybean plantings, though lagging behind, are likely to advance this week as somewhat dryer forecasts will allow widespread field work. The U.S. shipped 682,000 tons of soybeans for the week ending June 20 vs 680,000 tons last week, and 516,000 tons the same week last year. Year to date shipments are running about 12.5 mil tons behind last year's pace. Funds were thought to have sold 9,000 contracts of soybeans on Friday.

WHEAT: Wheat markets are higher this morning as wheat finds some buyer interest on higher grains. Jul Chi wheat is up 5-1/2 cents to 5.31-1/2, Jul KC wheat is up 6-3/4 cents to 4.59-1/4, and July spring wheat is up 1/4 of a cent to 5.36-1/4. Dry weather this week in KS should allow harvest to restart in the hard red areas causing selling pressure. Wheat's growing areas in the northern Plains and Canadian prairies got beneficial rains over the weekend and many are expecting U.S. winter wheat crop conditions to improve on the is afternoon's report. Despite the good weather, winter wheat prices are higher today. Chi contracts pushed back above their 10-day moving average levels and the KC contracts are retesting their 10 and 20-day moving average resistance levels. Spring wheat trade has been choppy so far today as prices hold onto their 20-day moving average support levels. The U.S. shipped 406,000 tons of wheat for the week ending June 20 vs 382,000 tons last week, and 364,000 the same week last year. Shipments are running about 67,000 tons ahead of last year's pace. Funds were thought to have sold about 2,000 contracts of wheat in Chi on Friday.

CATTLE: Cattle markets are mixed this morning, with Jun lives up 35 cents to 106.90, Aug lives were up 75 cents to 102.97, and Oct lives were up 15 cents to 104.30. Aug feeders were down 65 cents to 133.02, and Sep feeders were down 52 cents to 133.52. Cash trade last week was seen mostly 2.00 lower than the previous week, and a lack of strong retail demand has beef prices at their lowest value since May. To top it off, Friday's Cattle on Feed report was seen as slightly heavy. Still, the live cattle contracts are finding some stabilizing buyer action today near the lows from late May. These levels will be important to hold to avoid aggressive selling action. Feeder contracts are drifting lower again today, under pressure from rallying corn.

HOGS: Hog markets are showing triple digit losses today, with Jul down 1.15 to 75.10, Aug hogs are down 1.17 to 76.72, and Oct hogs are down 1.30 to 71.42. Friday's closes below nearby support was very negative looking, especially for the Oct contract, making its first close ever below its 200-day moving average level. Pork production has been enormous lately, with last week's production up 16.4% from the same week last year. This has kept supplies heavy and retail pork prices at their lowest values since March. Still, China hog prices are rallying, but providing minimal support to U.S. futures prices without notable progress on the U.S./China trade front. Traders will watch news reports very closely this week on developments at the G20 Summit, but supply and demand fundamentals are still very heavy.

Market Commentary provided by:

137 South Main Street, West Bend, WI 53095
Phone: 800-334-9779