Ag Market Commentary

Corn futures are trading 4 to 5 cents higher in most contracts on Monday, with a few 2020 contracts up 1-2 cents. USDA showed 617,740 MT of corn shipments during the week that ended on June 20 in this morning’s Export Inspections report. That was down 8.9% from last week and less than half of the same week last year. In addition, 109,914 MT of sorghum was shipped to China. Trade ideas for NASS planting progress tonight are 98-99%, with intentions shrinking and thus boosting the percentage. Friday afternoon’s Commitment of Traders report indicated that spec funds in corn futures and options added another 32,303 contracts to their net long position as of Tuesday, taking it to 143,515 contracts.

Jul 19 Corn is at $4.46 3/4, up 4 1/2 cents,

Sep 19 Corn is at $4.52 1/2, up 5 cents,

Dec 19 Corn is at $4.58 1/4, up 4 3/4 cents

Mar 20 Corn is at $4.64, up 4 3/4 cents

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Soybean futures are mostly 5 to 7 cents higher in the front months at midday. Soymeal is up 3.20/ton, with bean oil down 4 points. A total of 682,155 MT of soybeans were exported in the week that ended 6/20. That was slightly higher than the week prior and 32.02% larger than the same week in 2018. Of that total, 529,638 MT (77.64%) were headed to China. Trade ideas for soybean planting progress are in the 86-89% range, with the 5-year average for this week at 95%. Money managers in soybean futures and options trimmed their net short position by 35,848 contracts as of 6/18 to -55,307 contracts according to Commitment of Traders data.

Jul 19 Soybeans are at $9.09 1/2, up 6 3/4 cents,

Aug 19 Soybeans are at $9.15 1/4, up 6 3/4 cents,

Sep 19 Soybeans are at $9.21 1/2, up 6 3/4 cents,

Nov 19 Soybeans are at $9.33 1/4, up 5 3/4 cents,

Jul 19 Soybean Meal is at $318.80, up $3.20

Jul 19 Soybean Oil is at $28.40, down $0.04

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Wheat futures are up 10 to 13 cents in the nearby winter wheat contracts at midday, with MPLS steady to 6 cents higher. The weekly Export Inspections report indicated that 406,386 MT of wheat was shipped in the week of June 20. That was a 6.28% jump from last week and 11.54% larger than the same week in 2018. Traders appear to be expecting improved condition ratings for both winter wheat and spring wheat tonight. Southern Plains sources are reporting excellent HRW yields, although with low protein. Commitment of Traders data showed specs in CBT wheat futures and options adding 20,064 contracts to their net long position at 22,713 by Tuesday. They trimmed 2,880 contracts from their net short position in KC to -20,744 contracts. Taiwan importers purchased 83,200 MT of wheat from the US on Monday.

Jul 19 CBOT Wheat is at $5.37 1/2, up 11 1/2 cents,

Jul 19 KCBT Wheat is at $4.65, up 12 1/2 cents,

Jul 19 MGEX Wheat is at $5.41 1/4, up 5 1/4 cents

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Live cattle futures are down 5 to 77.5 cents in most contracts on Monday. Feeder cattle futures are $1.825 to $2.325 lower at midday. Friday afternoon’s Cattle on Feed report indicated June 1 on feed numbers up 1.62% from last year at 11.74 million head. That was the largest June 1 inventory since 1996. May placements were down 2.8% yr/yr, with marketings up 0.68%. The Cold Storage report showed frozen beef stocks of 403.552 million lbs at the end of May, down 6.2% from April and an 8.69% drop from a year ago. The CME feeder cattle index was down $1.56 to $131.43 on June 20. Wholesale boxed beef prices were higher on Monday morning. Choice boxes were up 27 cents at $220.09 with Select boxes 79 cents higher @ $200.34. USDA estimated weekly FI cattle slaughter @ 662,000 head through last Saturday. That was 4,000 head larger than the same point last year and down 3,000 from the previous week.

Jun 19 Cattle are at $106.500, down $0.050,

Aug 19 Cattle are at $102.125, down $0.100,

Oct 19 Cattle are at $103.525, down $0.625,

Aug 19 Feeder Cattle are at $131.575, down $2.100

Sep 19 Feeder Cattle are at $132.125, down $1.925

Oct 19 Feeder Cattle are at $132.625, down $1.875

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Lean Hog futures are down triple digits at midday, with multiple front months using today’s expanded limits ($4.50). The CME Lean Hog Index was down 41 cents from the previous day @ $79.14 on June 20. The Fresh Bacon Index was down $1.93 in the week that ended on June 21 to $137.73/cwt. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was up 73 cents on Monday morning at $77.46. The national average base hog price was down $1.53 on Monday at $72.32 per hundred pounds. Last week’s estimated FI hog slaughter is 2.449 million head through Saturday. That was up 18,000 from the previous week and well above the same week in 2018. Pork Stocks at the end of May totaled 628.660 million lbs, 1.16% larger than April and 0.79% above last year. Belly stocks were up 4.7% from 2018 at 64.122 million lbs. Chinese pork imports from all origins during May totaled 187,459 MT, the largest monthly total since August 2016.

Jul 19 Hogs are at $72.900, down $3.350,

Aug 19 Hogs are at $74.650, down $3.250

Oct 19 Hogs are at $69.525, down $3.200

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Cotton futures are steady to 133 points higher in most contracts on Monday. The US and China are expected to meet at this week’s G-20 gathering, with trade talks taking place prior to the Trump/XI meeting. Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed spec traders adding 144 contracts to their net short position of 30,385 contracts as of last Tuesday. The Cotlook A index for June 20 was down 105 points from the previous day to 76.85 cents/lb. The weekly Average World Price (AWP) from USDA is now 59.14 cents/lb through Thursday, up 17 points from the previous week.

Jul 19 Cotton is at 62.52, up 133 points,

Oct 19 Cotton is at 65.36, up 63 points

Dec 19 Cotton is at 65.72, up 16 points

Mar 20 Cotton is at 66.420, up 3 points

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
1908 N. 203rd St.Omaha, NE 68022
Phone: 402-697-3623
Fax: 402-289-2353

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