Softs Report 06/24/19

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was sharply lower for the week and traded to the lowest levels since 2016 as traders become more concerned about planting progress and crop development of this crop. The crop progress has been very close to the five-year average and crop conditions are called mixed. Trends remain down on the daily and weekly charts. The weather has been bad, especially in the Texas Panhandle, where there are concerns that it has been too wet and cool for the crop to be developed well. That should be changing now as it has been warmer and drier in the last couple of weeks. The Delta has also been wet and some rains have been seen in the Southeast over the last few weeks. Cotton planting fell behind the five-year average a couple of weeks ago, but farmers were able to make up for lost time last week and the data today should show good progress again. Demand is a problem for traders due mostly to moves made in Washington. Cotton is already experiencing lost business potential with China and Turkey and could get hurt if Vietnam is targeted for tariffs later on. China and ?Turkey both cancelled purchases for the current crop year in the export sales report last week although both were reported as buyers for the new crop. Also pressuring the market are forecasts for big production around the world. USDA sees no shortage of Cotton anywhere in the coming year. However, the Indian monsoon is off to a slow start and production potential could be hurt there and in Pakistan. Monsoon rains have started to move into central and southern parts of the country but these rains are arriving a couple of weeks late. Below normal rains are now in the forecast for June and longer range forecasts call for a drier September as well as the monsoon should be generally weaker than normal.
Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast should get some showers and storms on Tuesday and then over the weekend. Temperatures should be mostly near to below normal. Texas will have mostly dry weather. Temperatures will be near to below normal. The USDA average price is now 59.02 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 99,153 bales, from 98,414 bales yesterday. ICE said that 1 notice was posted for delivery against July contracts and that total deliveries are now 1 contract
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 6530, 6470, and 6400 December, with resistance of 6670, 6790, and 6860 December.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of June 18, 2019
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COTTON NO. 2 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #033661 Open Interest is 223,317
: Positions :
: 31,705 69,596 40,958 55,943 86,071 80,670 11,876 209,276 208,501: 14,041 14,817
: Changes from: June 11, 2019 (Change in open interest: -52,648) :
: -504 -1,639 -26,778 -19,605 -19,351 -5,027 -3,441 -51,914 -51,208: -734 -1,440
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 14.2 31.2 18.3 25.1 38.5 36.1 5.3 93.7 93.4: 6.3 6.6
: Total Traders: 285 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 67 98 75 54 56 48 23 214 213:
——————————————————————————————————————-

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ was a little lower again last week as the weather in Florida remained tranquil. Futures a[pear poised to move back to or below 90.00 seen earlier in the year. Speculators have been buying in anticipation of the hurricane season, but there are no storms on the horizon this early in the season. They are selling some of these positions now and producers have also been looking to sell as the orange crop in Florida looks to be big. The hurricane season started on June 1, but so far the state has seen only an increase in showers and storms that have been beneficial for crops. Trends are sideways to down on the daily charts and weekly charts as the market looks at a big orange crop and weak demand for FCOJ. USDA production estimates are above 70 million boxes and represent a remarkable recovery from the greening disease and the small crops of just a couple of years ago. Inventories in Florida are still 17% above a year ago. That means that there should be no shortage of oranges available to the market to make FCOJ. The increase is coming from less demand along with the increased domestic production. Fruit for the next crop is developing and are as big as golf balls. Crop conditions are called good. Irrigation is being used a few times a week to help protect crop condition. Mostly good conditions are reported in Brazil as the harvest there is active.
Overnight News: Florida should get scattered showers and storms through the week. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Brazil should get scattered showers today, then drier weather and near normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are down with objectives of 99.00, 94.00, and 88.00 July. Support is at 98.00, 97.00, and 95.00 July, with resistance at 101.00, 104.00, and 106.00 July.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of June 18, 2019
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #040701 Open Interest is 25,267 :
: Positions :
: 13,795 10,349 1,502 0 141 582 6,817 518 1,133 1,070 4,510 :
: Changes from: June 11, 2019 :
: -15 -272 -136 0 -2 25 -285 95 -88 126 11 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 54.6 41.0 5.9 0.0 0.6 2.3 27.0 2.1 4.5 4.2 17.8 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 84 :
: 25 15 7 0 . 4 22 4 17 6 12 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

DJ Florida FCOJ Movement and Pack – Jun 21
Florida FCOJ Movement And Pack
In mm ps, (million pounds solid). Source: Florida Department of Citrus (FDOC)
WEEK ENDING: 6/8/2019
Corresponding
Current Week Last
Week Season
6/8/2019 6/9/2018 % Change
CARRY OVER, RECEIPT & PACK
Carry Over
Bulk 339.67 279.50 21.5%
Retail/Institutional 6.43 6.44 -0.1%
Total 346.11 285.94 21.0%
Pack
Bulk 3.44 0.61 465.2%
Retail/Institutional 1.08 1.42 -24.3%
Total Pack 4.52 2.03 122.4%
Reprocessed -2.28 -2.03 12.0%
Pack from Fruit 2.24 0.00 NA
Receipts & Losses
Net Gain or Loss -0.13 0.22 -38.6%
Imports – Foreign 3.75 17.36 -78.4%
Domestic Receipts 0.00 0.00 NC
Receipts of Florida Product
from Non-Reporting Entit 0.00 0.06 -100.0%
Chilled OJ used in FCOJ 0.00 0.00 NC
Reprocessed FCTJ 0.00 0.14 -100.0%
Total Carry Over, Receipt & Pack
Bulk 344.45 295.86 16.4%
Retail/Institutional 7.51 7.86 -4.5%
Total 351.96 303.72 15.9%
MOVEMENT
Bulk
Domestic 3.85 3.01 27.9%
Exports 0.12 0.29 -58.5%
Total (Bulk) 3.97 3.30 20.2%
Retail/Institutional
Domestic 1.29 1.15 12.7%
Exports 0.00 0.00 NC
Total (Retail/Inst) 1.29 1.15 12.7%
Total Movement 5.26 4.45 18.3%
ENDING INVENTORY
Bulk 340.49 292.56 16.4%
Retail/Institutional 6.22 6.72 -7.4%
Ending Inventory 346.70 299.27 15.8%
Total Same
Total Season Period Last
To Date Season
8-Jun-19 9-Jun-18 % Change
CARRY OVER, RECEIPT & PACK
Carry Over
Bulk 237.21 185.02 28.2%
Retail/Institutional 5.92 7.20 -17.8%
Total 243.13 192.21 26.5%
Pack
Bulk 136.07 86.81 56.7%
Retail/Institutional 43.44 45.29 -4.1%
Total Pack 179.52 132.10 35.9%
Reprocessed -92.23 -91.00 1.3%
Pack from Fruit 87.29 41.10 112.4%
Receipts & Losses
Net Gain or Loss -0.90 0.99 -9.3%
Imports – Foreign 235.58 260.34 -9.5%
Domestic Receipts 4.91 8.10 -39.4%
Receipts of Florida Produ 0.04 0.46 -92.3%
from Non-Reporting Entit 3.28 1.00 227.8%
Chilled OJ used in FCOJ 1.75 0.61 186.9%
Reprocessed FCTJ
Total Carry Over, Receipt & Pack
Bulk 525.72 452.32 16.2%
Retail/Institutional 49.36 52.49 -6.0%
Total 575.07 504.80 13.9%
MOVEMENT
Bulk 170.37 148.35 14.8%
Domestic 14.86 11.41 30.2%
Exports 185.23 159.76 15.9%
Total (Bulk)
Retail/Institutional
Domestic 43.14 45.77 -5.8%
Exports 0.00 0.00 NC
Total (Retail/Inst) 43.14 45.77 -5.8%
Total Movement 228.37 205.53 11.1%
ENDING INVENTORY
Bulk 340.49 292.56 16.4%
Retail/Institutional 6.22 6.72 -7.4%
Ending Inventory 346.70 299.27 15.8%

COFFEE
General Comments: Futures were lower early in the week, then rebounded to close higher after testing support areas near the recent lows in both New York and London. The US Dollar moved sharply lower in the second half of the week and caused a firm Real. The market will look to add to gains this week and could confirm an important low in prices if new moves higher can be sustained. A strong export pace from Brazil remains a problem for the bulls. Brazil exported over 3.0 million bags of Coffee again last month. The Brazil harvest is moving along at a slow pace and producers are trying to store the crop due to the current low prices. Reports indicate that the yields are not real strong and that the quality of the crop is poor due to extreme weather seen early in the growing season. Vietnam is also reporting lower yields for the current crop as the weather was not good for flowering earlier in the year. There have been some hot and dry spells that have hurt yield and quality for these crops as well, but showers are reported in the Central Highlands now and ideas are that conditions and production potential have improved. Buyers are now more actively pursuing other origins, especially for certified or higher end coffees. Roasters were scale down buyers on the extended down move and now have more than ample supplies in-house or on the way. Brazil had a big production year for the current crop, but the next crop should be less as it is the off-year for production.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are lower today at 2.377 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 98.47 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions with near to above normal temperatures. Vietnam will see scattered showers and storms. ICE New York said that 14 notices were posted against July contracts and that total deliveries for the month are 441 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 99.00, 96.00, and 95.00 September, and resistance is at 102.00, 105.00 and 108.00 September. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1380, 1360, and 1310 September, and resistance is at 1440, 1470, and 1490 September.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of June 18, 2019
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COFFEE C – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #083731 Open Interest is 333,118
: Positions :
: 35,312 75,480 73,838 135,411 144,940 68,838 28,327 313,399 322,586: 19,720 10,532
: Changes from: June 11, 2019 (Change in open interest: -34,568) :
: 692 1,497 -19,463 -9,637 -13,659 -655 -430 -29,063 -32,055: -5,504 -2,512
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 10.6 22.7 22.2 40.6 43.5 20.7 8.5 94.1 96.8: 5.9 3.2
: Total Traders: 477 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 137 127 125 138 118 44 26 394 337:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Robusta Coffee Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 06/18/2019
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/
Processor/User Swap Dealers
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Robusta Coffee Futures and Options – ICE Futures Europe
155,312 91,508 71,384 17,159 11,163 2,488
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
100.0% 58.9% 46.0% 11.0% 7.2% 1.6%
Number of Traders in Each Category
156 51 46 18 6 10
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
5,036 32,940 11,537 1,971 1,303 19,975
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
3.2% 21.2% 7.4% 1.3% 0.8% 12.9%
Number of Traders in Each Category
13 32 16 11 11 22
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
5,639 4,521
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
3.6% 2.9%

DJ European Coffee Stockpiles Rise Again — Market Talk
1007 GMT – The amount of coffee stockpiled at major European ports continues to rise, further evidence of a glut that has pinned prices at close to decade lows. The six main coffee ports held 695,894 tons in April, according to the European Coffee Federation, 2% higher than in March. The rise was driven by Genoa, where stocks rose 13% to 102,752 tons. Andrea Thompson, a coffee consultant for broker INTL FCStone, says the data show supply remains strong and that demand may be weaker than many in the industry think. “Clearly we are in a well-supplied market and have been for some time.” Robusta is down 0.1% today at $1,380 a ton in London, and has fallen more than 8% in 2019. (joe.wallace@wsj.com)

SUGAR
General Comments: Futures closed lower, with London the leader on the way down. Reports from India indicate that the country still has a large surplus of White Sugar that probably must be exported. India has always been willing to dump agricultural goods such as Rice and Sugar at below cost prices, so the market began to anticipate improved sales from mills and exporters there. There are concerns that the Indian monsoon will not be strong this year and that Sugarcane production could be hurt. It is hot and dry there so far, but there are signs that the monsoon is ready to develop. Even so, there are now a lot of private forecasts that June rains in both India and Pakistan will be below average. The government weather services there is looking for a normal monsoon, but many private forecasters expect less rain and warmer temperatures than normal. The Real was firm late in the week against the US Dollar and made new highs for its recovery move. The move higher in the Real helped support world prices, as did more reports that Brazilian processors prefer to make Ethanol for the domestic market rather than Sugar for the export market. Processing of Sugarcane in Brazil is faster now after a very slow start as the is now harvest in full swing. The fundamentals still suggest big supplies, and the weather in Brazil and India has improved to support some of the big production ideas. Demand seems to be average and routine. Very good conditions are reported in Thailand. Demand for Sugar has been average, and demand for ethanol is reported to be increasing.
Overnight News: Brazil will get mostly dry weather. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 1240 and 1210 October. Support is at 1240, 1230, and 1210 October, and resistance is at 1280, 1290, and 1310 October. Trends in London are down with objectives of 327.00 October. Support is at 327.00, 325.00, and 323.00 October, and resistance is at 336.00, 340.00, and 343.00 October.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of June 18, 2019
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SUGAR NO. 11 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #080732 Open Interest is 1,053,088
: Positions :
: 105,718 214,188 145,211 436,604 569,695 287,599 54,769 975,132 983,863: 77,956 69,225
: Changes from: June 11, 2019 (Change in open interest: -92,927) :
: 1,303 -33,446 -63,401 -29,854 25,569 4,579 -23,025 -87,372 -94,303: -5,556 1,376
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 10.0 20.3 13.8 41.5 54.1 27.3 5.2 92.6 93.4: 7.4 6.6
: Total Traders: 245 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 51 61 77 84 76 32 19 212 195:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe White Sugar Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 06/18/2019
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/
Processor/User Swap Dealers
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE White Sugar Futures and Options- ICE Futures Europe
120,307 66,645 64,609 13,972 2,316 1,624
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
100.0% 55.4% 53.7% 11.6% 1.9% 1.4%
Number of Traders in Each Category
143 52 45 12 4 6
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
16,571 32,789 9,637 2,747 309 4,420
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
13.8% 27.3% 8.0% 2.3% 0.3% 3.7%
Number of Traders in Each Category
18 26 13 10 5 18
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
4,690 4,602
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
3.9% 3.8%

COCOA
General Comments: Futures closed mixed, with New York a little higher and London a little lower. The main headline for Cocoa continues to be the reports of production losses in Ghana. Ghana Cocoa authorities noted disease problems in its crop and said that mid crop production could be hurt. The disease could hurt the mid crop and probably will affect the next main crop that will be harvested at the end of the year. They say that about 50,000 tons were lost in the midcrop. The mid crop harvest is winding down in West Africa and reports are generally positive, although some Nigerian producers have complained that the weather is not giving them the best conditions for top yields. Ivory Coast arrivals are strong as are exports. The weekly arrivals pace is about 15% higher than a year ago and is holding this level. Demand appears strong and the market saw stronger than expected grind data when the quarterly grind is released in the EU, North America, and Asia in the last reports and ideas are that this strong demand is continuing. Growing conditions are generally good in West Africa. Periods of showers and cooler temperatures were beneficial, and most in Ivory Coast expect a very good mid crop harvest. Cameroon and Nigeria are reporting less production and prices there are reported strong. Conditions appear generally good in East Africa and Asia, but East Africa has been a little dry as has Malaysia.
Overnight News: Scattered showers and storms are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will average near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are higher today at 4.621 million bags. ICE said that 88 contracts were delivered against July futures today and that total deliveries for the month are 430 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2450, 2440, and 2410 September, with resistance at 2540, 2550, and 2580 September. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1820, 1810, and 1790 September, with resistance at 1860, 1870, and 1910 September.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of June 18, 2019
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COCOA – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #073732 Open Interest is 292,254
: Positions :
: 50,824 35,601 64,644 97,946 161,049 60,739 18,111 274,153 279,405: 18,101 12,849
: Changes from: June 11, 2019 (Change in open interest: 941) :
: 5,033 -327 2,834 -6,662 1,613 912 -1,855 2,118 2,265: -1,176 -1,323
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 17.4 12.2 22.1 33.5 55.1 20.8 6.2 93.8 95.6: 6.2 4.4
: Total Traders: 230 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 83 54 79 38 40 38 14 201 152:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Cocoa Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 06/18/2019
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/
Processor/User Swap Dealers
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Cocoa Futures and Options – ICE Futures Europe
357,596 183,864 236,683 26,539 33,014 30,261
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
100.0% 51.4% 66.2% 7.4% 9.2% 8.5%
Number of Traders in Each Category
146 49 41 12 11 11
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
53,379 2,517 24,093 5,297 151 27,978
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
14.9% 0.7% 6.7% 1.5% 0.0% 7.8%
Number of Traders in Each Category
34 7 13 16 7 22
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
6,185 2,899
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
1.7% 0.8%